50K Portfolio 1 Micro SI 25 (LIVE) = -$500
200K Portfolio 6 Micro SI 25 (LIVE) = -$3,000
The last two days with FOMC minutes have been very choppy with contrary price action and rapid drawdowns in the portfolios.
The drawdown through today is about $2,500 per micro or $25,000 per emini. The portfolio frequently visits these drawdown levels.
This is a drawdown alert to add contracts or start trading.
The markets have been very difficult to trade the last two days since the FOMC minutes. The market seems to be in denial and trades higher out of habit instead of lower based on fundamentals of quantitative tightening. The excess liquidity remains in the market as the Fed has not removed this liquidity yet. As traders we deal with un-natural price action and deal with markets that trade in a direction opposite of where it should trade.
For the last 14 years, the market has been programmed to depend on the Fed to ease if prices go down. Now that the Fed will tighten, the market doesn't seem to believe it. Once tightening actually begins in May, we could see some massive sell offs.
Sell in May and go away hasn't worked in recent years but it could work pretty well this year.
It will be interesting to see the latest CPI numbers as well.
Here is what former Fed Chair William Dudley said about what the Fed needs to do to tame inflation.
“If this doesn’t happen on its own (which seems unlikely), the Fed will have to shock the market to achieve the desired response,” Dudley said. That would mean hiking rates much higher than market participants currently anticipate because the Fed, “one way or another, to get inflation under control…will need to push bond yields higher and stock prices lower.”
3 out of 4 E-mini S&P strategies were profitable today while only 1 out of 5 E-mini Nasdaq strategies were profitable.
The real benefit of QT (Quantitative Tightening) will be a return to more normal monetary policy and the ability for more natural and truthful price discovery.
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