Last Saturday, I emailed you a drawdown alert. This Friday we hit an equity peak.
Monday and Friday were nice trading days this past week taking us to brand new equity peaks in the Portfolios. We are due for a cycle where we hit equity peaks and a run up similar to the $101,227.50 runup we had in live trading in the 200K Portfolio from March 3, 2022 - May 27, 2022.
We also show you the big cycles in July that this portfolio captured during the last 3 trading days of July through the first 3 trading days of August. The market moved pretty well making nice moves into the close on Thursday and Friday.
Additionally, we were due for some nice short trades and a short trade cycle in general. The market has been unusually propped up for the last 4 months with net losses on the short side. Its been at an extreme cycle favoring long only gap up trades the last 4 months and the psychology related to this recency bias can make you want to bias your strategies to what is working in the short term.
The markets can make you crazy sometimes as a trader. While some of the most bearish fundamentals exist, short trades have been losers during the last four months. If you give into recency bias, and switch only to strategies that are working in the short term and turn off all short trades and strategies that are not working, you could switch at exactly the time the cycle switches so that you then only trade strategies that lose or have long only strategies in a big bear cycle.
We keep both long and short strategies in the portfolio.
We stayed with our short trades with the anticipation of the cycle moving back into our favor and it worked well yesterday. Since this cycle has been so skewed to one side, I anticipate more opportunities to short this market as we go into September.
While we are at equity peaks and up on the month and quarter in live trading, the live results have underperformed the hypotheticals this month. The main culprit has been our 60M Breakout NQ strategy. It lost earlier this month on the July CPI report on the Micro Nasdaq. The Micro Nasdaq moved 55 points lower than the E-mini Nasdaq after the report was released. The E-mini Nasdaq hit it's profit target of $1,500 while the Micro Nasdaq version was stopped out on the big difference in swing low price movement. On an E-mini basis this is a -$1,400 loss instead of a $1,500 gain, which is a $2,900 per E-mini difference. This also triggered our monthly stop loss on the Micro but not the E-mini. The strategy then went on a winning streak, which we missed on the Micro version since the Monthly Stop Loss was triggered.
In spite of the extreme market bias, the stop running nature of the market, and our July Covid setback, our live trading is up on the month and on the quarter as we go into the last 3 trading days of the month.