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Hypothetical Trading System Signals on July 21, 2022 - Portfolio Equity Peaks


The Stock Index Portfolio 22 made brand new equity peaks today. We have been on the sidelines waiting for this portfolio to prove itself after a summer of chop. We are now waiting for a drawdown to start live trading again.


The Stock Index Portfolio 22 was about 3k from equity peaks. It was up today about $5k per e-mini. The 200K Portfolio was up about $2k and the 50K Portfolio was up about $500.


These are hypothetical signals right now as we have sat out most of this summer of chop.


The equity peak came from a worse case drawdown in the last 11 years to an equity peak all in three days.


6 out of 8 Nasdaq strategies were profitable today. 2 out of 2 S&P strategies were profitable. We continue to see a market environment where the only time the market is reasonably trade-able is when it moves higher. i believe the bulls will burn up their buying power here and when the market rolls over again, we will finally get the short cycle we have been waiting for. During the entire 30% sell off, re-pricing of the Nasdaq, the market was still difficult to short intra-day on a day trade basis. We are still due a cycle where we have some nice profits shorting lows in the stock index futures.


In the end it depends on the Fed's balance sheet in my opinion. I was under the impression the Federal Reserve would do what it said it would do to control inflation, but now I have my doubts. It is possible they won't reduce their balance sheet, thinking inflation is under control with the recent drop in commodities, and in the end, cause inflation to get worse, falling further behind the curve.


The Nasdaq is selling hard in the after hours (after all positions are flat) as SNAP has incredibly disappointing earnings.


The VIX closed at 23.08 and the market seems unreasonably apathetic. This sets up some potential shorts for tomorrow and into the end of the month.

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