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Hypothetical Trading System Signals on October 13, 2022 - Wild Reversal with some Nice Long Signals


The CPI was hotter than expected and the market sold off hard pre-market. The technical mean reversion trade was on as the market surged higher off the lows with a Key Reversal day.


We were almost able to phase into the strategies for live trades intra-day. Our drawdown criteria was not met so we did not take live trades. The 200K Portfolio was up $11,507.50 trading one E-mini on the Stock Index Portfolio 20 while the 50K Portfolio was up $3,452.25 trading three Micros on the Stock Index Portfolio 20. These are the hypothetical results.


The market continues to trade in an unusual fashion where the only tradeable market patterns are the rare bear market rally. The Advance Decline line range was over 4,000. The last time it was higher was on January 26, 2022 when the NYSE TICK had a -1500 reading in the afternoon. We saw this on Tuesday and a -1800 NYSE TICK at the open today. The technical oversold mean reversion trade with a gap fill was the mode of the day.


The Federal Reserve's balance sheet was down only $84 million this week, after dropping $36 billion last week. They pace of the balance sheet runoff is much smaller than what was committed. The urgent goal to fight inflation doesn't seem so urgent based on the slow pace in the reduction of the balance sheet.

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