Live and Hypothetical Trading System Signals on October 6, 2022 - Choppy Pre Jobs Friday Trading


I turned on live trading today, trading 1 E-mini in the 200K Portfolio on Robot 2022 NQ and 4 Micros in the 50K Portfolio. The 200K Portfolio live results were down -$415 and the 50K Portfolio live results were down -$175.


The hypothetical results for the Stock Index Portfolio were -$7,500 per E-mini, -$3,000 in the 200K Portfolio, -$750 in the 50K Portfolio.


Tomorrow is jobs friday and the markets were extremely choppy today. Eight strategies traded and all lost on the day based on the hypothetical signals. We only traded Robot 2022 live. Jobs Friday was the biggest economic report of the month. More recently, the CPI report has become the biggest monthly report. Tomorrow's jobs report might be a catalyst for a big move though.


We are working on finalizing a 20 strategy portfolio to trade for Q4. We briefly discuss the updates.


We discuss "Is the market oversold?" The bounce on Monday was based on the idea of a Fed pivot and the idea that the market was "oversold". In September, the market was very weak and technically oversold on a one month basis. On a four month basis, it is in the same place it was in June (when the bulls imagined a Fed pivot coming soon as well), so it really depends on your timeframe.


As far as a Fed pivot, here is the latest from Federal Reserve Chairman Rafael Bostic (Reuters), "The U.S. Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is likely "still in early days," Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said Wednesday (October 5, 2022), becoming the latest U.S. central banker to caution against the likelihood rates would be reduced in response to any weakening of the economy."


We also discuss how the market we are in is not a bull or a bear market. We are in a "re-pricing" period. We could move into a real bear market next. The reason we are not in a real bear market in my opinion is based on the difficultly of shorting the market intra-day. In a real bear market, it's possible to short the market on momentum. If it is impossible to short momentum into the close from time to time (not every day but at least sometimes), it's not really a bear market from my perspective. Its not a bull market either. This is the concept of "gradually and then suddenly". We are due for a real bear market cycle but the next move could be higher as markets don't always do what they should. The stock indexes are still higher than pre-pandemic levels and we "ought" to be lower than pre-pandemic levels.


The Federal Reserves balance sheet had its biggest drop since its all time highs in April. It was down $36 billion this past week and down $200 billion since its all time highs. During QE the Fed would increase its balance sheet by nearly $100 billion per month. It is down two months of QE in the past 6 months.


I am working on the new portfolio setup to send out as soon as possible.

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