top of page

Live Trading System Signals on December 7, 2022 - Double Delusion and Big Short?



We saw an extreme amount of chop today and the strategies did well by not trading much with only four strategies taking trades. We managed losses well considering the extreme nature of the chop. We are up on the week after giving back a big portion of yesterday's gains with Monday's profits. The 200K Portfolio was down -$5,900 and the 50K Portfolio was down -$1,750 in live trading with hypotheticals coming in at $5,497.50 and -$1,659.25 respectively.


Longer term, as in 2023, I expect the market to trade lower based on fundamentals. In the short term, through the end of the year, I've anticipated a big move higher in the market going into the end of the year based on the agenda of the liquidity in the midst of the seasonals.


The bulls have had numerous opportunities and I'm surprised at how weak the market continues to be and how the bulls continue to prop the market up, creating massive chop. The bull market can resume once true pricing has been realized. Fundamentally, I believe that price is lower.


We were ready to be bullish into the end of the year but were profitable on Monday and Tuesday this week going short. I thought the market should have had another down day after giving back 100% of last Wednesday's gains. The market seems to be at a point of double delusion. On June 16th the bulls tried to call a bottom and hear something bullish and dovish that the Fed didn't say. The pattern has repeated itself again recently as FOMO is still high in anticipation that the Fed is going to act differently than what they are saying by being more dovish. It is very difficult to determine the direction of the market.


The good news is, we don't have to predict the direction. Anticipating the direction is fun but we depend on our algorithms to take their trading signals intra-day based on what is happening with price in the moment. We have winning days and losing days along with runups and drawdowns.


It is good to have some nice gains on the year with 12 trading days until Christmas and 16 trading days left in 2022.


I have updated the DontTradeOnHoliday function as Christmas Day is on a Sunday so the market holiday is on Monday 12/26/2022 instead of Sunday 12/25/2022. I have also added the dates through New Years 2024. Monday, December 26, 2022 and January 2, 2023 are the next two days where we DontTradeOnHoliday.


The update will go out in the next couple of days.


34 views0 comments

Comentarios


bottom of page