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Trading System Signals on 01/18/2024

We did not place live trades today. The 250K Portfolio, hypothetical results were +$1,702.50 today. This is a small gain relative to the recent losses. It is a holiday shortened week and tomorrow is the last trading day of the week. I ran the Portfolio Calculator and show the drawdown through yesterday was -$8,415. With today's gains, it is at -$6,712.50. 


​The Stock Index strategies in the Portfolio 50 were down on the day while the commodity strategies, energies and metals were up on the day with shorts in silver and gold and some longs in crude oil. The commodity strategies alone are at an equity peak in the portfolio while the stock indexes are in about a 10K drawdown. Without the commodities, the max historical drawdown is 33k instead of 23k. The risk to worse case drawdown is 23k if we just trade the stock indexes. The commodities play a key role in reducing the drawdown in this set of strategies.


​The market is still in stealth and "sneak" mode higher. The Nasdaq gapped up, rallied, then took out the lows and then took out the highs on the day in a very divergent pattern. There was a big point gain on the day but only 1 of 5 Nasdaq strategies were profitable and the Nasdaq strategies were down approximately -$1,500. Only one S&P strategy traded and it was up about $1k. ​This holiday shortened trading week seems to be typical and this time of year, there are many holiday's - which do contribute to the low vix, toneless, choppy markets. It is possible we may get more favorable price action soon. The commodity strategies have been on a streak so a rapid drawdown in those in the pre-market could give us a drawdown entry alert intra-day so that we could potentially capture any trends tomorrow by turning on automation after any rapid drawdowns.


The VIX closed at 14.13 and is still trending higher than it was recently when it spent a lot of time in the 12 handle. It is still at very low levels.


​The Stock Index Portfolio 27 E-mini results were -$2,537.50


​The Stock Index Portfolio 27 Micro results were -$253.75 taking the same trades as the E-minis.


The Stock Index Portfolio was $725 above its worst case drawdown at yesterday's close. It exceeded that level by $1800 today. We wait for a bounce. Since we sent out a drawdown entry alert when the portfolio was in a drawdown, there is some room for a bounce. Tomorrow is Friday, so we are holding out for a Friday trend since it has been a mostly sloppy market with no real trading action yet on the year in our trading or in the markets.


The V Reversal strategies that I am developing took 4 trades today and were 3 for 4, trading 3 strategies (one strategy took two trades). These strategies do better when the market starts out down on the day. The total hypothetical results were +$2,430 for those strategies. I plan on licensing these and sending them out to stock index subscribers by next week. I still want to put them in the portfolio as well to see how it syncs up with the existing portfolio. I also have a pre-market strategy that gets in on the quick gap up before the market opens. Gap Continuation front runner! It captured 50 points in hypotheticals today and did really well in 2023. I will be sending that one out as well.


One pattern to test is; if the market gaps down, wait until after 10:30 for a trend. If the market gaps up, the trend is over by 10:30, but may continue again after 14:00.

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