Trading System Signals on May 6, 2022 - Spastic, Flashy, Choppy Prop Up Day


50K Portfolio 1 Micro SI 25 (LIVE) = -$1,080

200K Portfolio 6 Micro SI 25 (LIVE) = -$6,500


Challenging trading day but we have nice gains on the week as we hit equity peaks yesterday.


We had a down day across the board with more and more chop as the afternoon progressed. We were up on the day, mid day. Lately we have seen the morning chop turn into a trend. Today was a day where the market price action became more and more choppy and generated many trading signal reversals.


Very choppy, spastic, flashy day. There seemed to be massive desperation to prop the market up today. The market feels really shaky right here and on the verge of some harsh selling.


The dialog is that yesterday was a washout day. I disagree. Yesterday was a mean reversion day of FOMC day. Wednesday's trade was a bear market rally. Yesterday the market gave it all back. The liquidity came in and propped up the market.


We are still in a very slow bear market. The flashy price action in the order book today could be a sign of margin calls and fast selling. The S&P is at about the same place it was a year ago. Who knows how much leverage is in the system.


After the cash close at 3:00 pm CST/4:00 pm EST, we see the bid disappear. The bond market continues to sell off with much higher interest rates in the future.


The Fed balance sheet went up this week in spite of dialog from the Federal Reserve that balance sheet reduction would start in May. What happens when they start taking 50-100 billion dollar chunks out of the balance sheet and the Fed funds rate is more normal 2, 3, or 4%?


The most bearish concept in my opinion is everyone is screaming that the Fed should move faster but yet they continue to move slowly. What do they know that we do not? CPI report comes out next Wednesday.


Our portfolios had some nice gains on the week.

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