The 50K Portfolio was down -$280
The 200K Portfolio was down -$1,690
Monday was a good trading day, getting most of last weeks losses back. The rest of the week was challenging. Most of the weeks losses were all on Wednesday's FOMC minutes.
We have had 3 days in a row of prop up price action since FOMC. We typically see these prop up days with more selling or a reversal. We don't typically see three days of prop up price action in a row at the same levels. Technically this is a bearish signal for lower prices next week. The market spent three days in a row working hard to reverse the downtrend but never really had a significant reversal.
The bond market is dropping and interest rates are rising as the 30 Year Mortgage rates are above 5%. Inflation is rising. Tuesday we get March's CPI.
Tick Reversal finally got a nice short trade after 4 losers in a row.
Today there were 3 strategies trading on the Nasdaq and 4 strategies trading on the S&P.
The Stock Index Portfolio hit an equity peak on March 28 and came close to hitting an equity peak this past Monday, April 4th. The cycles in the Stock Index Portfolio are very fast.
I'm looking forward to next weeks trade as we have seen an old pattern emerge, where there is chop and drawdown at the end of the month and beginning of the new month.
Next week moves us toward the middle of the month.
The CPI, Consumer Price Index, released at 7:30 am CST on Tuesday will be a number the market will focus on.
One pattern for CPI that I have seen is the market rallying on higher CPI as the bulls continue to look for a theme of "peak inflation". Depending on the number, we will see how that pattern holds up. Will the market sell off if CPI drops?