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Hypothetical Trading System Signals October 3, 2022 - Instant FOMO in Q4


The 200K Portfolio Hypotheticals were up $6,000 today while the 50K Portfolio Hypotheticals were up $1,500 today.


The market continues to confirm the long only bias for day trade strategies, nice smooth uptrends and overly choppy down days.


Everyone seemed to join the bullish chorus today since it has a strong seasonal bias this quarter. I disagree with the analysis as the fundamentals are still bearish until the Fed changes policy. There is the game that is being played of anticipating the Fed is about to pivot. This started shortly after they began tightening. They called for peak inflation for the past year but have been wrong.


Theoretically, bull markets begin when the last bull has thrown in the towel. Every other down day, there are a number of bulls still very positive. After Friday's close, the consensus seemed to be capitulation. One day later, the bulls seem to be energized and giddy.


There was a sudden fear of missing out on picking a bottom while bulls piled into the market today with euphoria. I've never seen so much euphoria when the market is at multi-month lows. Its unusual and the strength of the tape was a little weak in the way it moved - similar to last Wednesday where we witnessed a big rally with a similar pattern. The following two days, the market sold off pretty good.


We love trading the uptrends and are ready to take long trades the rest of the year if that is the way the market moves. In my opinion, the delusion continues but since the delusion is backed with a lot of liquidity, it could move much higher.


Tomorrow should be interesting.

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