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Hypothetical Trading System Signals on August 2, 2022 - Fighting the Fed in a Head and Shoulders


Closing in on a drawdown alert. After the Stock Index Portfolio 26 was down 8k today, I am showing roughly a 13k drawdown per emini in two days of trading based on hypothetical signals. The drawdown alert range is between 10-15k. We are in the ballpark of an official drawdown alert that we use to start trading again. I will update the Portfolio Calculator this evening and send out a message. I prefer the 15k drawdown level and may start intra-day instead of end of day.


The market has made a head and shoulders today trying to fight the Fed. The market looks prime to roll over. The set of strategies we have now do better on the short side than the Stock Index Portfolio 22. We are also due for a period of time where the market is "less propped up" and actually hits the lows and continues.


The bulls have worn themselves out trying to create a bottom and trying to call a Fed pivot. Fed speak today was more or less, "We're not joking, we have more work to do to fight inflation. We are not lowering rates in 2023." The Bond market believed the Fed with a strong sell off while stocks sold of some but then tried to bounce again.


The Commodity strategies were up slightly today in active session with Copper Short, and Silver longs being the highlight.

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