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Hypothetical Trading System Signals on August 4, 2022 - Delusions of the Crowd


Small down day today of -$1,300 per E-mini after a gain of $28,000+ yesterday per E-mini. We are still waiting for a drawdown after getting out of sync with the market in July.


Some of the narrowest ranges we have seen in awhile. The S&P traded in a 26 point range and the Nasdaq traded in approximately a 160 point range.


The stock market seems to have collectively decided to trade the way it normally does in a bull market in spite of new fundamentals. Short term strategies allow us to join the delusions of the crowd as we did yesterday piling in on the long side, even though we believe the market should move lower long term. These were all day trades and we were flat at the end of the day.


Later today we get the Fed's balance sheet and we shall see how hard the Fed is really trying to reduce its balance sheet as it stated at the last meeting.


We get the Jobs Report tomorrow at 7:30 am CST. I anticipate it will be a choppy or mean reversion day. We are in a bad news is good news environment. A bad report could ignite the bullish rally even more and feed the bullish delusion that that "the Fed has to pivot".

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