Hypothetical Trading System Signals on July 1, 2022


We continue to sit on the sidelines until at least July 6th but take a look at the hypothetical trading system signal on July 1 for the new Stock Index Portfolio 22.


We could adjust the portfolio again before we go live or delay the start. It is possible we are in for a summer of chop.


It is hard to tell as we go into the July 4th holiday.


There was an afternoon rally into the close. Typically there is more of a pre-holiday rally. The lack of a real rally on the first day of the month and quarter after the recent selling is a bearish sign in my opinion.

The Fed did not reduce its balance sheet in the month of June as they said they would unless they did it on June 30th. We looked at the balance sheet through June 29th.


We also take a look at Personal Saving as a Percentage of Disposable Income. It is at its lowest level since March 2009 (when the Fed started QE).


Have a great 4th!

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