After I made the video AAPL released earnings. AAPL spiked and so did the Nasdaq. 60M Breakout NQ went on a tear today making almost 6k per contract. Many of our strategies lost on the short side though. Even with only 2 of 7 Nasdaq strategies showing profits today, the Nasdaq strategies turned net profitable on the day with AAPL earnings. The Stock Index Portfolio 22 ended up $620 per e-mini today. The 200K would have been up $240 and the 50K Portfolio would have been up $60. These are hypothetical signals.
It was a small gain but a new equity peak. We are waiting for a drawdown to start again.
When I made the video, the results were down about -$1200 on the day and the portfolio had been down as much as -$5000 on the day.
It was a big comeback and this market feels like it is about to breakout to the upside. The bulls are all worked up about a perceived Fed pivot. The Feds talk has been tough but their QT action has been very minor.
The Feds balance sheet was down only $9 billion this week (less than 1% reduction from all time highs) and the Fed Funds rate of 2.25 - 2.50% is still very low historically. We have been at 5000 year lows for the previous 14 years though.
This market is very contrarian and starting to build up FOMO at the same time. The fear of missing the next big move up on some sort of Fed pivot is greater than the fear of the market rolling over again as the VIX moved down to the 22 handle today.
We look at the daily chart and see a market that is building momentum for an upside breakout.
Tomorrow is the last trading day of July.
Our signals are flat at the end of the day and can trade it either way for tomorrows trade.