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Live Trading System Signal on 02/12/2024




The 250K Portfolio was down -$2,050 on the day in live trading. The hypothetical results were down -$2012.50. We are in about a 20k out of 23k drawdown and 6th losing day in a row on the hypotheticals. Our live results this month are down about -$8k or -3.2% and in our 5th losing day in a row, missing the bulk of the initial drawdown by waiting for a drawdown to start.


Studying the 6 losing days in a row in the past two years in the 250K Portfolio (8 was the maximum number prior to the last two years) we see that:


-On the 12 day of April 2022, there were 6 losing day in a row in the portfolio followed by a $101K runup into the end of April 2022.


-On the 11th day of August 2022, there were 6 losing days in a row in the portfolio, followed by a $37K runup into the end of August 2022.


The time of month and consecutive losers' lines up well in these two cases.


We have worked on locking into the patterns of the market by starting on a drawdown so that we can measure our risk as well as the potential profit. If the market remains difficult, we have to manage risk and re-evaluate our approach.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 E-mini was down -$1,852.50.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 E-mini was down -$158.50 and slightly better than the E-mini with an additional trade on the longs in Tick Count Trend II v2.


I do believe the market is more unreasonably one-sided than we have seen it in a while. We discussed the RSI Divergence this weekend anticipating the short side and some decent distribution days. The market did rollover today.


The market started out stronger than normal with all indexes and market internals moving in the same direction. It was a surprising move higher once again. Our strategies took the long trade, and we were up on the day mid-day. The big reversal was challenging. Momentum Reversal is capturing some nice moves in this market environment and the highlight lately. Overall, the strong move early, followed by the hard reversal generated a loss on the day.


There were a lot of trades today with 17 stock index strategies active with the 250K Portfolio. considering the number of trades and the harsh reversal, the losses were pretty well contained. There was only one other trade in Silver with a nice gain of +$975. We continue to work on balancing the portfolio so that the number of trades and activity are more equal between markets.

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