
This is the most reluctant market to trend correctly that I have seen in a long time, if ever. The V-Reversal strategies continue to capture the moves and are a positive in the portfolio. There are many V-Reversal patterns that we see in the market, even when we don't have a trading system signal that captures it. It has become the essence of this market and the main pattern that can be traded in many markets right now. Traditional strategies that look for a continuation of a current move have been less profitable in this extreme back and forth market. The Nasdaq has worked to close at the 21,000 the last couple of days.
We were up on the day and long the Nasdaq and S&P when there was a 300 point sell off in 23 minutes starting at 2:40 pm EST. A few strategies reversed to the short side and the Nasdaq reversed once again to retrace the entire 300 points by 4:15 pm EST. I do expect markets to trade like this based on these patterns and we have traded these types of patterns before but the length of this cycle since mid October of extreme back and forth has extended well beyond what we normally see.
The market internals were strong and the back and forth was challenging this afternoon. We were down on the day and then recovered several times. There are some days when the market seems to reverse as many times as it takes to generate a losing day. An afternoon short or late afternoon long were viable potential V-Reversal trades that would have helped. V-Reversal did generate a nice early morning short.

In pre-Fed liquidity time periods, the 300 point sell-off today would have been the first leg of another 300 point selloff to 20,500 instead of an entitled reversal.
There were 9, 100+ point reversal from 8:30 am EST and 7, 100+ point reversals from 9:30 am EST. The two strategies 60M Breakout NQ 2020 B MS7 and NQ VSD Breakout 2025 Long Short did extremely well last quarter and to start the year. We have waited to add them to the portfolio. They are at a good place now to add them into the One Million MNS. Both of those strategies had multiple losers today and generated about a 10K hypothetical loss between them. The NQ VSD Breakout 2025 was added towards the very end of the day to the One Million MNS 87.
The One Million MNS 87 was -1.05% and the 250K Portfolio was -$2,100 on the day to start the year down about -2.0%. The One Million MNS 87 + 2 NQ ON and 3 MBT will be traded and is shown below. This portfolio is in a drawdown entry alert.

The hypothetical results for the Stock Index Portfolio 24 was -$9,372.50 with 1/10th on the Micros. This portfolio is in a drawdown entry alert.

The hypothetical results for the Top 50 Select Portfolio was -$12,500. This portfolio is in a 22.4K out of a 37.1K drawdown (since 1/1/2010).
The hypothetical results for the 50K Portfolio was -$3.045.
I thought the two major moves off the lows at 11:40 am CST and again at 2:10 am CST are the types of moves that are part of the liquidity bounces that distort prices.
There is so much pent-up energy in the market right now, and you can see it in the afternoon price action. It is the type of price action that precedes a breakout trend. The inability of the market to go down is so extreme that a bounce higher of 500-1000 points (market moved 300 points easily today in about 20 minutes this afternoon) would not be surprising even though the market has not completed what I can consider a normal or complete pullback down cycle since it is being constantly pre-empted by the dip buying. We still follow our long/short strategy setups and often times the moves that were supposed to happen during the day and don't, follow through at night. A 500 point sell off in the night or move higher could be captured by the NQ VSD Breakout 2025.
The PPI was cooler than expected but 30 Year Bonds continued to fall (rates higher). CPI is tomorrow in the pre-market. Crude Oil was a disappointment in our SR CounterTrend setups. After a recent strong rally, there was a slow pullback with no bounce.
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