There was a steady stream of news flow beyond FOMC today with Fiscal policy news in the morning, Monetary policy news in the afternoon and earnings after the bell.
Our strategies focus on day trading signals. 2024 was the first time since 2007 that the net trend in the Nasdaq was at night. We also noticed how profitable FOMC days have become since November 2023. We have adjusted our trading to make sure there isn't a bias or window in which we would miss favorable price action. We have added strategies at night and made the adjustment to trade on FOMC. Every trading window was noisy today and this FOMC day was certainly an exception to the most recent trend with noisy markets all night and then all day and during FOMC and again in the afterhours for earnings releases. This FOMC day was typical of historical FOMC days and similar to regular trading days recently.
The noise continues to be extreme. We do have two trading days left in the month. There are time periods when the market targets end of month and beginning of month moves. The price action all month has been sloppy. The market continues to fight natural and normal selling that would generate better buying opportunities followed by higher prices in the long run. The natural ebb and flow has been interrupted with the monetary policy injections in recent years.
The One Million MNS was down -1.05% while the 250K Portfolio was down -$2,100 in live trading. We limited losses with position sizing.
The hypothetical results for the Stock Index Portfolio 24 was -$6,137.50 with the Micros at 1/10th.
The hypothetical results for the Top 50 Select Portfolio was -$8,640.00
The hypothetical results for the 50K Portfolio was -$1,240.00
V-Reversal NQ did not trade today.
The constant reversals, noisy and spurious price action intra-day is typical of range-bound trading. The amount of energy that has persisted in intra-day ranges since October 15, 2024 could be indicative of a a massive breakout move in one direction or another. Treading water and managing risk while we work towards the breakout is the challenging part of trading.
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