Live Trading System Signals on 01/30/2025
- Capstone Trading
- Jan 30
- 3 min read
The main highlight of the day was V-Reversal NQ, taking a short trade early in the day. The noise today was even greater than yesterday on FOMC Day. V-Reversal has done well capturing the turning points in this market environment. The E-mini S&P strategies, especially trend strategies have really struggled. I am certain this is the highest level and longest duration of pure noise that I ever seen across a long list of futures markets.
The One Million MNS 87 + 2 NQ ON + 3 MBT was down -3.25% while the 250K Portfolio was down -$6,500 in live trading. It was an extremely challenging day with numerous reversals and flash moves. We increased position sizing after an intra-day drawdown at a typical turning point. Initially it was the correct decision, but another end of day flash move came in and was a big setback. The number of times the market continues to reverse once you have a net position in one direction continues to increase. A portfolio that uses trend day trade strategies for diversity has more of a liability with trend strategies than diversity in this type of market.
I am pausing live trading in the One Million MNS so that we can sync up with one of the more focused Nasdaq based portfolios as well as any new research. It is challenging to manage many live systems and keep up with the latest research for all markets and strategies at the same time. Regime change research will be the focus.
While in research mode, we will still continue to post the hypothetical results.
The sell off on Sunday night has the dip buyers overly energized. There is no follow through on the moves up or down with many reversals on buy and sell signals.
What started out as pre-election chop in mid-October, followed by post-election chop for the rest of 2024 and has persisted. We are in our 4th month of elevated noise as the market seems to be stuck in noise mode challenging the trend stock index strategies.
Every E-mini S&P day trade strategy was down today. The strength has been the Nasdaq strategies and the more concentrated Nasdaq setups. The two overnight NQ strategies that would have enhanced the daytrade setups in Q4 have not helped in Q1 2025.
These are the E-mini S&P trend day trade signals that were caught in the noise and flash reversals today.
Bitcoin has also become sloppy this week.
The metals were an exception today with Gold at All Time Highs with a very nice trend. I developed a new strategy in December called Gold Wave. It was developed to capture bull moves in Gold. It only backtests well since October 2023 but the long signal was there today. This strategy is in research mode and is the type of research that we hope to implement in the future. The hypothetical snapshot is below.
We like to trade strategies that work well now and work in the past but some of the most recent market environments are so different than the past that there are many strategies (such as Gold Wave) that work really well now for the past 1-2 years but not prior. Gold Wave is an example of a market that is trading persistently at much higher levels and daily dollar ranges. Handling regime changes in many markets requires constant attention. This is a 24 hour a day strategy that has a dynamic trailing stop loss based on market patterns.
The hypothetical results for the Stock Index Portfolio 24 was - $7,770.00 with the Micros at 1/10th and a new worse case drawdown. Scaling back to the Nasdaq strategies is recommended while the market remains noisy. Specifically, the Gap Continuation 2020 and V-Reversal NQ which are part of the Two System Portfolio.
The hypothetical results for the Top 50 Select was -$4,210.00
The hypothetical results for the 50K Portfolio was +$1,215. This portfolio was positive on the day and only has one E-mini S&P trend strategy which was positive on the day.
The hypothetical result for the Two System NQ Portfolio was +$1,975.00 and made a new equity peak. This can be tracked and traded through a systems broker BTR Trade:
The hypothetical results for the Five System NQ Portfolio was +$1,250 and is also at an equity peak. This Portfolio can also be traded through our Systems Brokerage Partner.
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