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Live Trading System Signals on 04/03/2025

It is interesting to watch recency bias over the years and the reaction to market moves that are typical historically but haven't happened recently. The S&P did not have a 10% pullback in 2024 so when it happens in 2025 it feels more severe than it really is. The market had a massive down day based on a percentage move, but it was only a gradual move lower from Mondays lows. The run up from Monday's lows to Wednesday highs was unwarranted and exasperated the move lower today. There was a bullish choir trying to front run Liberation Day and "guessed" or "bet" on the outcome and didn't want to miss the face ripping rally some of the perma bulls had suggested.


At the close today, the Nasdaq 100 is about 16% off its highs but still has 10% of its gains from 2024. We know that 2024 and 2007 were the only two years in the Nasdaq 100 where the market was up over 10% for the year and the day session gains were negative. This is a major technical factor that is bearish in my opinion while the major fundamental factor that is bearish is the lack of stimulus that has been the main driver in asset price appreciation since 2009.


Tomorrow, we get the Employment Situation report at 8:30 am EST with Fed officials speaking between 11:25 and 1:00 EST with Jerome Powell starting it off at 11:25 am EST. The VIX hit 30 and the Zig Zags were at 27 today. Most of the losses were in the after hours yesterday while the day session today could be characterized as a choppy downtrend.


The One Million MNS went live today and was up 0.14% today trading a portion of the Sibilance NQ v24. The 250K Portfolio was up +$350. The hypothetical results for Sibilance NQ v24 were approximately -$2,900.


The hypothetical results for our portfolios are listed below with $25 round turn slippage and commission.

Portfolio Totals

+--------------------------------+----------------------+

| Portfolio | Combined Daily P/L

|--------------------------------+----------------------|

| Sibilance NQ v24 (5 Micros | -$2,900.00

| Stock Index Portfolio 11 | -$3,965.00

| 50K Portfolio | $960.00

| EMINI NQ 2 System Portfolio | $565.00

| EMINI NQ 3 System Portfolio II | -$1,890.00

| EMINI NQ 4 System Portfolio | -$2,145.00

| EMINI NQ 5 System Portfolio | -$1,185.00

+--------------------------------+----------------------+

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