Live Trading System Signals on 05/05/2025

The fast shift in the mode of the market is interesting. The average daily ranges, average one-minute ranges, and wild swings have drastically dropped from their April levels. The VIX has also dropped from its April highs but remains at a relatively elevated level. The S&P 500 went into Pollyanna mode going up 9 days in a row through last Friday, the longest consecutive winning streak in 20 years. Today the rally paused while the VIX closed at 23.64.

We were up on the day until about 3:45 pm EST when the market continued to rollover after making a high at 2:45 pm EST. The stock indexes have been in a slow and wobbly uptrend that constantly looks like it is about to roll over but continues higher, until it doesn't.

We have extensively highlighted the weak technical picture in the stock indexes since 100% of the gains in 2024 in the Nasdaq 100 and 92% of the gains in the S&P 500 were at night. Even without tariffs as a headline and catalyst, we expected the market would pullback this year. Uncertainty based on future tariff policy became the headline that the market has focused on and accelerated the move lower.

The market has rallied back on perceived tariff resolution. The fundamental and technical factors remain bearish as the major indexes have moved back up to the 200-day moving average. The X-Factor is liquidity and global money supply and what can move the market against all technical and fundamental factors. We are not privy to the real time data that is related to M1 Money Supply.

The One Million MNS was down about -0.80% today while the 250K Portfolio was down -$2,000. We were up on the day with net longs all day. The market continued higher in a steady trend all day until about 2:45 pm EST and then moved lower, nearly retracing the entire day without a bounce. Sibilance NQ v24 was down -$7,752.50. We traded 1 E-mini per signal after starting with Micros for the 3rd losing day in a row after making equity peaks on Wednesday.

The market has been challenging for our top V-Reversal trading system. It was less than 10 points away from its profit target before rolling over and posting a down day. There are cycles when it feels like the market is "in your face" against you on trades like this.

The hypothetical performance for the portfolios are listed below.

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| Portfolio | Combined Daily P/L |

|--------------------------------+----------------------|

| Sibilance NQ 28 -$7,752.50

| Stock Index Portfolio 11 -$7,355.00

| 50K Portfolio -$2,375.00

| EMINI NQ 2 System Portfolio -$1,550.00

| EMINI NQ 3 System Portfolio II -$520.00

| EMINI NQ 4 System Portfolio -$520.00

| EMINI NQ 5 System Portfolio -$3,300.00

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