Live Trading System Signals on 05/08/2025

The month of May has become one of the more challenging months we have seen in awhile. There is a contentious and aggressive nature to the market that trades in constant reversals against our net position in some of the larger portfolios. Five out of the first six trading days have been down days in the One Million MNS. Also, five of the six days have either given back profits or accelerated losses into the close. The strategies have had an unusual acceleration against us at the end of the day that is very quick. Also, we have also seen many trades come very close to profit targets before it violently reversing such as the V-Reversal short today that was within 10 points before reversing. Rapid drawdowns, many consecutive trades that go against you, and the loss of momentum as soon as you reverse positioning, can push the limits on your trading psychology and emotions.

One of the main tenets of systematic trading is consistency. You don't want to adjust your strategy too soon since the market may flip right back to what you were trading.

The Sibilance NQ is in a 35K out of 42K worse case drawdown per E-mini. It made an equity peak early intra-day on 5/1/2025 before going into the current drawdown. Tomorrow is Friday and Friday's have been favorable in the past after a challenging trading cycle.

The One Million MNS was down again today -2.0% trading 2 E-minis per signal on Sibilance NQ v24. The 250K Portfolio was down about -$5K. We were positioned for some nice gains into the close but the market rolled over against us quickly at the very end of the day. It went from a breakeven level to our final trade and losses on the day in 15 minutes. A similar move in the other direction would have had us breakeven for the last two days. It is unusual to see this many consecutive days where the market goes against our position quickly at the very end.

We hold for a cyclical bounce up against the drawdown limit. If we don't see favorable price action soon or after tomorrow, then we will pause trading in favor of more research for the One Million MNS. We don't want to miss the favorable cycles but we also want to limit our risk. We are trading a portfolio of trend and counter trend trading systems.

The number of days where we are seeing constant reversals while volatility filters are still within tolerance have been excessive. The market continues to move higher like a stealth bull market (surging higher at night and after a sell off) but has signs of bearish behavior as well with the end of day sell offs which often times lead to more bearish price action longer term. There is an old saying that is probably not "as true" now, but says "amateurs trade the open, pros trade the close".

I have never seen a news cycle persist for this long. It is unusual for the market to remain so focused on every news event.

Interest rates have moved higher as the 30 Year Bond is back at the lows of May.

The hypothetical results for the portfolios are listed below using $25 round turn slippage and commission and 1/10th per E-mini.

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| Portfolio | Combined Daily P/L |

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| Sibilance NQ v24 (2 E-minis) -$24,220.00

| Stock Index Portfolio 11 -$7,790.00

| 50K Portfolio -$1,820.00

| EMINI NQ 2 System Portfolio -$2,130.00

| EMINI NQ 3 System Portfolio II -$820.00

| EMINI NQ 4 System Portfolio -$1,320.00

| EMINI NQ 5 System Portfolio $60.00

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