Live Trading System Signals on 06/18/2025

The top recommended strategy and highlight today is V-Reversal NQ with the accelerated trailing stop loss. It was less than 10 points away from a profit target today when the market violently reversed. This time the accelerated trailing stop loss exited and kept it profitable. The original V-Reversal did eventually hit the profit target after some massive volatility. This strategy has done well in a noisy market.

Tick Wave is another strategy that has done well in this market. Replacing Gap Continuation with Tick Wave is a consideration for a Two System Portfolio.

Overall and for most strategies, the noise in the markets is becoming more and more extreme. The portfolio adjustments this year have taken noisy markets into consideration, and we have adjusted to trade on FOMC days which had become more favorable starting the end of 2023. The noise on FOMC Day *was* no longer an outlier.

Today's back and forth in a narrow range was harsh. The size of the moves were not as large as March and April but the intensity of turning points in a narrow range without any resolution, along with the unlimited dip buying, chopping the market up, made it difficult for the portfolios. The noise is so extreme, it almost seems intentional.

It is surprising that the VIX is above 20 and can remain this contained for this long.

The One Million MNS had one of its worse days giving back the gains on the month. We were down -5.0% while the 250K Portfolio was down -$12,500 in live trading as we worked for a bounce on the Hybrid D42 and SI 18. We are down about -0.75% on the month in live trade but are ahead of the hypothetical results for the portfolios that we have synced up with this month since we started on a drawdown entry alert.

We started the Gold Wave strategy for live trading last week (as part of the Hybrid D42 and SI 18) after tracking several recoveries from a drawdown to new equity peaks since December 2024. Last week was another good drawdown entry point. This time it hit a worse case drawdown and max consecutive losers instead of recovering. We started on a drawdown, enduring about 5 of the 9 losses in a row since last week.

The One Million MNS will move back to a more focused approach of trading the Stock Index Portfolio 18 as it is $6K per contract away from a hypothetical worse case drawdown after hitting equity peaks on June 3. There was not much of a follow through after the recent equity peaks on June 3 with just a one-day equity peak. The One Million MNS will trade 3 contracts and risk 1.8%.

We are in a better place in our live trading than if we had traded the Stock Index Portfolio 18 all month with two contracts. The Hybrid D42 and SI 18 hit a worse case drawdown and is down -$31,790 on the month (hypothetical results).

The Stock Index Portfolio hypothetical results are below and highlight the drawdown entry for Friday's trade. We need a bounce here to continue. If the noise floor in the market continues to expand and affect the portfolios results, then we will pause trading for research and/or "wait out" market conditions.

Tomorrow is a holiday and we will not trade.

As we continue to deal with noisy markets, some of our latest research will be based on Exit Strategies for Algorithmic Trading Systems.

The hypothetical results for the portfolios are below.

Stock Index Portfolio 18 (1 NQ) = -$9,850

Stock Index Portfolio 18 (3 NQ) = -$29,550

50K Portfolio = -$4,705

Diversified Portfolio 42 = -$18,215

Hybrid D42 and SI 18 = -$32,240

EMINI NQ 2 System Portfolio = +$55

EMINI NQ 3 System Portfolio II = +$945

EMINI NQ 4 System Portfolio = +$120

EMINI NQ 5 System Portfolio = -$1,695