Live Trading System Signals on 10/04/2024

The One Million MNS was down -0.6% today (trading the Stock Index Portfolio 18) while the 250K Portfolio was down -$1,200 in live trading. It has been a choppy first week to the quarter with the intra-day pattern's changing directions frequently. We start the month at -0.88% in live trading.

We have seen this before where the beginning, to middle of the month has been the best time period to trade. It is possible we get some different price action as we go into the presidential election, about a month away. The mean reversion and counter trend strategies are not always in sync with counter trend and mean reverting markets as there are time periods when the strategies are in sync while there are other time periods where the strategies are out of sync. The drawdown this week puts us closer to rotating back to the One Million MNS 128.

The best trend of the day was in the pre-market on the jobs report where the Nasdaq futures returned to Monday's open in a fairly smooth trend. This was a weekly mean reversion trade.

At the day session open, the market reversed and almost filled the gap before there was some back-and-forth price action, followed by another rally to the highs of the day at the close.

Taking out yesterday's closing range to fill the gap would have put our V-Reversal up on the day instead of down. It's always interesting when you see an "almost gap fill" that is pre-empted and how it would have benefited your trade. It's possible that an "almost gap fill" is a good long signal or a good profit target for shorts.

At the same time, the V-Reversal 2024 COMB 24 did hit equity peaks yesterday and we have an updated NinjaTrader 8 version that will be released next week that more closely matches the Tradestation version to take reversals on existing open positions.

The hypothetical results for the Stock index Portfolio 18 was -$6,075 per E-mini and -$608.50 per Micro. This puts the Stock Index Portfolio in a -$17.6K drawdown and near the drawdown of -$19K on July 26th.

The One Million MNS 128 was down -$7,917.50 today and in a -23.6K drawdown. I anticipate we will have the opportunity to sync up with this portfolio next week.

The stock indexes continue to have an unnaturally skewed bias to the upside with monetary and fiscal stimulus in the system and the distortion that it has generated.