Live Trading System Signals on 10/22/2024

If the market can't go down when it seems it should, it's possible that it would surge higher when there is "clarity". The election next month is on November 5 and the FOMC meeting is on November 6-7, on a Thursday. FOMC meetings are typically on a Wednesday. This two-day meeting starts on the day after the election with the statement is two days after the election. The basic uncertainty around the election is threefold: 1.) Who will win 2.) Will it be contested if it the results are close 3.) What will happen to the House and Senate. Wall Street typically prefers gridlock. The uncertainty around FOMC is 1.) Will they cut again 2.) What will they say or "hint" for forward guidance?

It should be an interesting November.

The One Million MNS was up +0.53% while the 250K Portfolio was up +$1,075 in live trading to go back into the positive on the month. We started trading the One Million MNS 128 today with a drawdown entry alert.

The Stock Index Portfolio 18 hypothetical results were -$1,060 per E-mini and -$105.50 per Micro with just two trades. The markets are difficult to trade right now and the Stock Index Portfolio 18 is right at a worse case drawdown. We anticipate this and recommend starting after a losing streak to buffer these drawdown levels.

The pre-election trade has a different tone to it and is more "random". I anticipate some stronger trends after the first week of November. It is best to trade for a bounce here in the portfolio results and if we don't get it, pause and wait for post-election trading and any portfolio adjustments. The market could go from random and "listless" pre-election trading to very strong trends as the end of the year if institutional money rushes in to make trades based on the certainty it hopes to achieve based on the first full week of November.

We saw this scenario unfold last year at the very end of October 2023 with strong moves higher based on a Fed meeting. Many of the moves were overnight while there was more mean reversion intra-day. The strategies we have now are setup to trade that scenario.

It can be difficult to lock into pre-election cycle trading as the occurrence is so rare, once every 4 years with different circumstances each time. The nature of the market is still choppy and mean reverting during uncertainty, and the V-Reversals are in a good place to sync up with the markets.