Live Trading System Signals on 10/24/2024

The live trading system results for the One Million MNS 128 was -0.32% on the day with the 250K Portfolio down -$650 on the day. The 250K Portfolio is down 7 of the last 8 trading days and is down -0.44% on the month or about -$1100.

We anticipate some favorable price action while at the same time minimizing risk. The hypothetical drawdown in the One Million MNS 128 is -$38K out of a max drawdown of $52K. There is a 1.4% risk to the worse case drawdown and the One Million MNS 128 hypothetical results are down -2.6% on the month while our live results are down about -0.44% on the month.

The Stock Index Portfolio 18 hypothetical results were -$915 per E-mini and -$90 per Micro. There were only two Nasdaq trades. Viper NQ was +$575 per E-mini (+57.50 Per Micro) and V-Reversal NQ was -$1490 per E-mini and -$147 per Micro.

The highlight was Silver taking some nice long and short trades today in the One Million MNS 128.

The stock indexes remain extremely compressed, especially for a 19.08 VIX. The bulls are backed by liquidity and working on a market melt-up. Even if the fundamentals don't support it, the liquidity does. It would make sense for the market to sell off into the election and Fed meeting and then rally after the election/Fed meeting. If the market rallies into the election and Fed meeting, then it could "sell on the news" after the election/Fed meeting. It is also possible the market could "rally on the news" post-election after it is already overbought and runs up into the news in this type of environment.

Technically, the Nasdaq futures show several levels of a stochastic divergence or topping pattern. We know that the bulls, at this time of year, backed with fiscal and monetary stimulus, like to turn sell signals into buy signals in the stock market.

Stanley Druckenmiller holds a 20% portfolio position that is short bonds in anticipation of higher rates (and higher inflation). This is the one scenario that could derail this rally if "rates go much higher from here". What the Fed says and does at the next meeting will be very interesting.