The trend was done for the day by 10:20 am EST in the Nasdaq as the market chopped around after the first hour of the day session and closed near the 10:20 am EST price. The Advance Decline line closed down again today with weak market internals in the broader market 4 out of the last 5 days. The Advance Decline line closed at +47 on Wednesday on its only positive day. The VIX did close down in the 12 handle at 12.77 on Jobs Friday.
The One Million MNS was up +0.37% today while the 250K Portfolio was up $740 in live trading. NightTrader E-mini S&P was a top performer as we end the first week of trade, up on the month. We are in a time period where the markets have been smoother and more continuous since Thanksgiving Day. We see the holiday effect follow through along with the beginning of the month as well as the seasonals. Many old patterns are working so far in the first week of December. Increasing contracts would have been ideal this week in a market is trying to "run away". The overnight strategies did well in the stock indexes. The one anomaly recently was the extra volatility on the day before Thanksgiving.
The hypothetical results in the Stock Index Portfolio 18 were -$1290 in the E-mini and -$56.50 in the Micros. The Micros did better than the E-minis. Some platforms show the V-Reversal NQ taking two short trades (Micros) while other platforms show a short trade reversing to a long trade on V-Reversal.
Its possibly that a data error on one of the data servers caused the difference for V-Reversal. Tradestation has multiple data servers and trading platforms can be connected to different data servers. Sometimes one user is connected to one data server while another user is connected to a different data server. One tick of data difference can generate occasional differences. I find these differences average out over time.
The Top 50 hypothetical results were +$517.50 on the day.
The 50K Portfolio hypothetical results were -$315.
We like to remain balanced in our trading so we take a look at how quickly markets can change to keep us in check. Often times markets fall when very few see why it could happen. "There is nothing on the horizon..."
Three years ago, we were in a similar place after a 21 month runup from March 2020 - December 2021. We are in a similar pattern from March 2023 - December 2024. Inflation and monetary policy are different (or at least perceived differently as another inflationary cycle could resume) and upcoming policy changes for deregulation are considered bullish. The overnight Nasdaq strategy, a measure of the bull market, made its high during the last cycle on December 16, 2021. This year that same cycle would line up with the FOMC meeting right before Christmas.
Taking a look at history, twenty five years ago, during the 2020 Dotcom bubble, the Nasdaq 100 was up 61.5% on the year going into December 1999 and moved +24.8% in December of that year for a gain on the year of 101.9% in 1999. The Nasdaq made its high on March 24, 2020 after moving +29.9% from the close of 1999. In 2020, the Nasdaq closed near its October 1999 lows after dropping about 51% from its March 2020 highs.
Comments