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Live Trading System Signals on December 1, 2022 - Massive Chop Ahead of Jobs Friday


The Stock Index Portfolio was down -$17,700 on the day while the 50K Portfolio was down -$5,600. The hypotheticals were -$17,130 and -$5,139. It was a very choppy day and the chart looks similar to May 31, 2022 - which is the biggest losing day in the Stock Index Portfolio 18 MIT + BLITZ with a loss of $20,360, 6 months ago.


We were not trading the current portfolio then but our live results were approximately -$13K on that day as we were trading 6 Micros on the 200K and it was type of market, similar to today, that was challenging for most strategies.


I certainly don't enjoy these types of days.


On a positive note:


1.) We had big gains in November 2022 to cushion the blow (+$49K in the Stock Index Portfolio) with new equity peaks in live trading yesterday.


2.) November started out with 4 losing days in a row of -$19K before going on a winning streak so a similar cycle to start the month.


3.) Friday's have been one of our best trading days of the week this year.


4.) The Stock Index Portfolio 18 MIT + BLITZ is near a worse case drawdown so it is in a drawdown alert to start or add contracts. It is down 38k from its equity peak while we are down 17.7k from our live trading equity peak.


Jobs Friday is tomorrow so I anticipate some trends.


Historically, May 26th was the biggest winning day of around 50K while the biggest losing day was two trading days later on May 31st around -20K, after Memorial Day Weekend. I remember this well and it was something that I looked at last night. We didn't surge to the current equity peaks with some outsized gains. I have anticipated that on days of 25-30K or more that put us at equity peaks, that we should consider pausing and waiting for a drawdown.


We didn't get the massive gain before this second worse losing day in 2022. The order of the big winners can sometimes start with a loser first instead of a winner so the potential for a big up day after


I had anticipated another move higher today and potentially a better trend as yesterday's massive gains were on the back of massive chop so our gains were limited and it was not a surge. The market was waiting for Jobs Friday.


Jobs Friday could generate a nice trend tomorrow. Ideally, a sell off at 8:30 am EST on the report followed by a recovery back to today's close by 9:30 am EST and then a strong rally is the type of price action that we have seen that can be profitable on news events.


I was also reading Marty Schwartz last night from the book Market Wizards and he talked about how he always took a break after big gains. It's difficult to quantify an ambiguous term such as "big gains". It's a future strategy that is on my mind.

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