We are up on the week after 2.5 days of massive chop as we prepare for PPI (Producer Price Index) at 8:30 am EST tomorrow morning (pre-market) 11 out of the last 12 rollover days have been profitable. Today was a down day though as we rolled to the March stock index futures contracts.
Adaptive Moving Average has been responsible for the majority of losses the last two days. It hit 10 losing trades in a row to go into a normal drawdown and similar to drawdowns that we have seen in the past. The worse losing streak in the last 7 years is 13 losers in a row.
Today the strategies were down -$2,900 on the 200K Portfolio and down -$1,150 in the 50K Portfolio with hypotheticals at -$3,165 and -$950 respectively. The 200K is up on the week by +$1,800. There is an incredible amount of noise in the market. While we had a nice trading month in November, we didn't have any big winners to match last Thursday's big loss.
The trend chop trend chop cycle is setting us for a Friday decision (in price) and a potential trend into the weekend that could give us additional gains on the week. While we still hold out for one of those outliers on the upside (since we had one last week on the downside) we continue to manage risk.
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