Since the beginning of 2023, there is a nice net profit for the current setups we are trading on Jobs Friday. We were optimistic for the Jobs Friday trade today. The volatility was extreme today with many rallies followed by stop running. This continues to be one of the more aggressive stop running (of long signals) bull markets I have ever seen. At the same time, it remains nearly impossible to short.
That could change starting next week with the NVDA stock split.
The One Million MNS was down -0.34% on the day with a -$675 on the 250K Portfolio. It was a profitable trading week with some nice gains on Tuesday and Wednesday and almost 2% in trading profits for the first week of June.
The Stock Index Portfolio 18 was down today -$4,240 per E-mini and -$425 per Micro.
Gold Gap Continuation 2020 captured the short side today. We were around breakeven in our live trading on Gold today since Gold Flash was down on the day taking the long side. Last Friday, the S&P had more than a 100 point range. Today Gold had more than a 100 point range with a massive sell off. Gold Gap Continuation did well capturing the short signals for nearly a $14 move or $1400 per contract.
There are many reasons for the market to have a decent pullback here - we will focus on two.
Perhaps the number one fundamental has been big tech and the liquidity that chases it. NVDA will split 10:1 after the close today for Monday's trade. Many times, stocks like NVDA will run up into their stock split date followed by profit taking and a pullback after the split. NVDA has had one of the best runs we have ever seen with a quick run up to a $3 Trillion market cap.
Lately the market likes to prove any idea for selling to be "wrong". Initially, we may see a move higher on NVDA Monday, so the sell off could be delayed, or it could be immediate. It's also possible the rally could continue.
The NVDA stock split and the ECB rate cut could generate a "sell the news" profit taking trading regime starting next week. Yesterday we talked about how the market has rallied for two years for a rate cut. When it finally happens, albeit the ECB this week, it could generate some profit taking.
There is an FOMC meeting next week.
US Stock Index futures continue to trade the June contract for another week. Rollover is next weekend.
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