Live Trading System Signals on November 1, 2022 - VIX Divergence and Continued Pre FOMC Chop


The 200K Portfolio was down -$3,600 today and the 50K Portfolio was down -$1,150 today. The hypotheticals were -$3,492.50 and -$1,047.75.


The S&P and Nasdaq futures were down and the VIX was also down today. The Russell 2000 futures were up 0.01%. This is a VIX Divergence as the VIX usually moves in the opposite direction as index prices.


The VIX has been down two days in a row based on the 4pm EST close (but only one day based on the 4:15 pm EST close) while the S&P and Nasdaq futures have also been down two days in a row. VIX Divergences can be bullish.


The market is choppy and is pulling back into FOMC. I do anticipate that the liquidity wants to load up in this area as we go into the end of the year. The last two days have felt like a stealth choppy pullback into FOMC for higher prices post FOMC. This is seasonally one of the most bullish times of the year and I am bearish on the fundamentals but anticipate the liquidity wants to disregard the fundamentals and do business as usual.


We tread water on choppy days like this and look forward to more days like last Friday as we move into the end of the year. The market continues to remain broken on the downside as there are very few opportunities to short this market intra-day, especially with momentum, even though most believe this is a bear market. After 14 years of QE and Fed stimulus, the bulls still seem to be in control of what is considered a bear market.


On the charts, the market looks sideways after strong buy programs came in on the last CPI number and again on Amazon earnings.


If the FOMC surprises tomorrow with more hawkishness than expected, the market could sell off.


Today the S&P strategies were 0 for 1 with a small loss on the S&P while the Nasdaq strategies tried to take the Gap Continuation trade at the open with Robot 2022, TICK Wave, and TICK Pullback, only to see a Gap Fill down instead. We have seen more gap fills lately. Tick Reversal did take a nice short trade and was up on the day as the Nasdaq strategies were 1 for 5 on the day.

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