On Wednesday, intra-day adjustments were made once we looked at some historical FOMC Minutes data and realized that 6 out of 6 of the last FOMC Minute releases had big losses in our portfolio setup on the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST.
We decided to exit with gains around 11:30 am EST and tried to send out an email notification of the adjustments we made in real time to our subscribers. The message did not go through correctly. This is one benefit of the managed accounts (having it traded for you).
If you traded on Wednesday, you are still in sync with the portfolio setup and the decision was done as a risk management decision based on being at equity peaks and the data. We will begin trading the Stock Index Portfolio 18 + BLITZ again on Monday 11/28/2022 with three trading days left in the month.
The 200K Portfolio live results were +$4,521.50 and the 50K Portfolio live results were +$1,120.10. Hypothetical were -$7,235 and -$2,170.50.
These intra-day decisions are optional and not part of the systematic portfolio and not part of our regular trading process. FOMC Minutes are released three weeks after each FOMC Meeting. The FOMC meeting is always the big interest rate announcement that is a financial media event. Backtesting our portfolios to trade or not trade on FOMC Meetings shows that it is best to trade on FOMC Meetings days, as those days can be choppy but they can also generate some good trends.
The FOMC minutes that are typically released 3 weeks after the meeting are typically a non-event - until this year. We will be doing some more detailed research on FOMC minutes and may add an FOMC minutes filter in our Portfolio Calculator. My initial hypothesis is that it is a non-event historically but because of inflation and loss of credibility in the Federal Reserve, FOMC Minutes are now a big deal! and potentially bigger than the FOMC Meeting.
The Portfolio Calculator has been updated through Wednesday, November 23, 2022 and the combination of setups we have been recommending this month was at an equity peak on Tuesday.