It's been a challenging five days of trade. We don't typically lose all five trading days of the week and Friday's can be strong after a down week but we were down today as well. It makes it challenging on our capital as well as our psychology. The current portfolio and portfolio we were previously trading hit a worse case drawdown today.
There were also some automation errors that included a crash at the open right after two strategies entered. We were able to reboot the platform and re-sync but had a worse loss on Robot 2022 NQ. We haven't had a crash in awhile during automation but it is fitting considering the type of week we are having.
The live results for the 200K Portfolio were -$3,300 and the 50K Portfolio is -$2,550. The hypotheticals were -$7,845.00 and -$2,383.50 respectively. We were able to mitigate some of the losses in the 200K Portfolio with some quick adjustments around the turning points.
We are looking for a bounce here as these extreme cycles can reverse quickly. Doubling down especially after Tuesday's mid terms with some tight risk management is a consideration where capital is available.
My weekend research will indicate any adjustments that need to be made. If there are no adjustments by Sunday night we will continue with the current setup, managing the risk and looking for a bounce. We also want to phase in Zig Zag NQ at some point. It would have been great to trade only Zig Zag NQ this week.
The patterns that occur at the day session open are a real challenge. Those have served us well but lately we are getting violent reactions and sharp moves against us. Often times those are in the form of a gap fill instead of the gap continuations we have seen.
The market seems to be fighting the Fed and has mainly traded above those June 16 lows for the last 5 months for what is supposed to be a bear market. The market is stubbornly trying to create the next bull market against bearish fundamentals.
Crude Oil was up 5% and Soybeans were up 1.77% today. Seeing Crude Oil above $100 and Soybeans above 15 is what I anticipate before the end of November. If we see a lower CPI for October's CPI report, I anticipate it will be higher again in November as another cycle higher in commodity inflation would be justified based on a long season of negative real rates.
The Nasdaq futures were down -6.2% and the S&P futures were down -3.6% this week. Both indexes were up on the day while the VIX continues to move lower below the 25 handle.