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Live Trading System Signals on September 8, 2023 – Quarterly Gains, Pause for Research and 10 Points


The 250K Portfolio was down again today -$4,950 in live trading. We are going to protect our quarterly gains and quarterly equity peaks and pause trading here on the quarter to do research for Q4. It is good to be up on the quarter given the market environment.


We are at quarterly equity peaks and +17.5% on the year.


I'm very disappointed in the results this month and the current drawdown. Over the past five months, the markets have changed quite a bit and are much more difficult to trade. The ranges are much smaller and the VIX is persistently lower. The percentage of choppy days is much higher and the percentage of easy days is much lower. Lately the market seems to energetically trade against every position we take.


Day trading is one of the hardest ways to make money. Most "experts" can't do it.


With higher interest rates, consider purchasing T-Bills for account sizes over $550K for a risk free rate of return 5.2%. 95% of your T-Bill can be used for futures margin.


I am going to celebrate the positives this year and pausing live trading and the daily trading videos (but will post research videos) to effectively research the best way to trade Q4.


Ten Research Points

1.) We are looking at a regime change as 4 out of the last 5 months have had low monthly average gains. We are considering that we are back in a 2017/2019 time period with extremely low VIX and narrow ranges.


2.) We want to trade less and be more selective, so we don't get caught up in the chop.


3.) We want to potentially zoom out and swing trade or swing trade with options. (I show an example strategy that does well going back 22 years when the Fed isn't in QE mode).


4.) The SR CounterTrends and other commodity strategies may do well in low VIX environments that we experienced prior to the pandemic.


5.) The Portfolio Money Management Algorithms are a highlight. One idea here is to trade the MP Trader NQ which is down -7.2K on the month. The MP Trader NQ Avg Entry Price is -$2.5K on the month and has managed risk really went on the Nasdaq trading systems.


6.) The concept of trading the PMMA - MP Trader NQ Avg Entry Price when we are at equity peaks and then rotating to the full portfolio when we are in a drawdown or switching between different setups dependent on the setup with the lowest risk to worse case drawdown is an idea.


7.) Waiting until the VIX goes up to 18 to trade the current strategies is also a consideration. The market has remained propped up for a long time. I would have thought there would be more of a natural correction by now and I am surprised at the endless "propping up".


8.) Trading strategies based on the order book. I believe there are some potential strategies but since there is no historical data, it is more difficult to backtest.


9.) I have been working on converting Crude Oil strategies to one-minute charts for the Portfolio Money Management Algorithms.


10.) Gap Fill strategies and Mean Reversion have been a highlight.


I haven't traded Meats and Softs lately; a quick study could tell us the potential.


Stock Index Rollover this weekend to December for Monday's trade so the charts will need to be updated to track or trade these strategies. Simply change the U to a Z in the symbols.

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