November and December 2016 were very profitable for the portfolio setups after the 2016 election. September and October 2016 were sub par for some of the portfolios but after the election results, trading was more steady with some big gains.
A similar pattern could emerge in 2020. This election cycle has been much more contentious and therefore more volatile in pre-election 2020 as we saw the results in September and October as well as the start of November, become very choppy.
The VIX closed below 25 yesterday and election results came out today (Saturday). VIX is currently at August levels and August was our last big month in many of the portfolios so a return to a VIX at those levels could provide more steady trading.
With the portfolios at or near worse case drawdowns, after the massive pre-election chop, the opportunity could be pretty big for a rebound (to steady trading), if it occurs.
I’m looking forward to trading a more steady market that is less focused on political uncertainty.
We discuss all of the portfolios and some election history for the portfolio results in the video below so that you can see the opportunity for the rest of 2020.