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Short Selling Day and Trading System Signals on April 30, 2024

Capstone Trading


Gap Continue I 2024 ES hit two profit targets today for +$2,350 while VSD NQ Long Short captured about 350 points, almost $7k per contract taking the short side. It was a good day to go short as the Cobra III ES and NQ also captured the short side.


We did not take live trades again today as we wait for a drawdown entry alert. The One Million MNS 110 was down about -5.7K on the day or -0.57%. The Stock Index Portfolio 18 was up +$395 with the Cobra III ES and NQ hitting some nice shorts. The V-Reversal, counter trend and mean reversion strategies were too active buying the dip today which offset the gains on many nice short trades including the VSD and Cobra III strategies.


The Portfolio Calculator will be updated to determine if we have a drawdown entry alert. We do not have a drawdown entry alert yet in the Stock Index Portfolio 18 but we are near a drawdown entry alert in the One Million MNS 110. There are still some hypothetical open positions in the One Million MNS 110 and a final calculation will be noted once we have it. Since we don't trade the portfolios on FOMC, tomorrow's results will not change our drawdown entry calculation.


Today was the last trading day in April. Tomorrow, we start May 1 with an FOMC Day. The last time FOMC was on the first trading day of the month was on November 1, 2023. That day is seared into memory as that was the big beginning of a massive runup. It would be interesting to see tomorrows FOMC on the 1st of May become the beginning of a massive sell off. 


Either way, the idea of FOMC on the first day of the month could generate a big trend in either direction. We have the FOMC Trader trading system to trade on FOMC Day.


On March 20, the FOMC Trader trading system had a nice gain to new equity peaks. 


We don't trade our portfolios on FOMC Day, but FOMC Trader could be traded. The FOMC Trader uses a tight stop loss and was actually stopped out during a choppy time period on November 1, 2023. The stop loss is only 50 points. On February 1, 2023, the strategy hit a 5k profit target. The strategy has a 1k stop loss and 5k profit target.


It was interesting to see the pullback in Coffee and Cocoa the last couple of days.

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