top of page
Search

Stock Index Portfolio 18 Analytics, Drawdowns, and Adjustments

We discuss the latest drawdown levels in the Stock Index Portfolio 18 from an analytical point of view and some potential adjustments.


Entering the day on August 28, 2025, the Stock Index Portfolio 18 was in a 28.5K out of 37K drawdown per E-mini. It has been at these levels before and can be a good place to increase position sizing or start trading. The time window is also favorable. The last 14 months, this setup has been profitable from the 21st through the second trading day of the following month. We have 3 days, not counting today for this setup to hit 15 in a row. So far it is down during the window that started on the 21st. Time and price squeeze patterns can be very powerful. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and this pattern could end on this cycle.


The market has been much sloppier than normal with price action that can be described as stop running with very little persistent and favorable price action since the July 4th holiday.


I am anticipating a potential "flip" after Labor Day on Monday to some price action that has more tone and persistence.


Could 2025 end the way it started? It's a potential pattern that we have to consider. The path to nowhere.


ree

We also have a Stock Index Portfolio 36 update that includes 3 additional E-mini Nasdaq strategies along with 15 E-mini S&P strategies. Most of the S&P strategies are "old" and developed prior to 2020 and designed to trade the low VIX environment of 2017 and 2019. We are verifying this for a Stock Index Portfolio update.


The potential options include:

1.) Trading for the bounce

2.) Trade the Two System Portfolio NQ

3.) Wait for the market to clarify its mode and for the strategies to sync up based on performance.


The market environment has gone from some of the most volatile price action we have ever seen in March and April to the quickest 20 week VIX crush through last Friday (8/22). The VIX has dropped -69% in 20 weeks. The second largest 20 week VIX drop was -66%, March 20, 2020 through August 7, 2020. In March 2020, we are very aware of the Feds accommodative actions. In April 2025, the president made the statement, "Now is a good time to buy stocks". Fiscal and monetary policy have been key drivers to push the stock market higher and reduce volatility.


This Source for this is Charlie Bilello:

ree

Comments

EXCLUSIVE MARKET AND STRATEGY UPDATES

 Capstone Trading Systems © 2025. All Rights Reserved.

​

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

​

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY, SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

bottom of page