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Trading System Signals on 01/03/2024

The live trading system signals for the 250K Portfolio are down about -$3,025 today. Crude Oil was slightly profitable but the Nasdaq, S&P, and Gold were all down on the day in really choppy intra-day price action.

We have a new week, new month, new quarter, and New Year, with very choppy intra-day price action. This reminds me of the first half of 2023, where Monday-Wednesday were choppy while Thursdays and Fridays provided some real price action. The VIX was up to 14.04 today, which is still a lower-than-average value. The last three trading days stock index price action has been more of a controlled pullback. In 2023, there were several cases where we expected a gradual move lower followed by a sudden and faster move lower. At the inflection point where the sudden move lower was anticipated, a sudden move higher occurred. This was the case in January 2023 and November 2023. 

The market seems to be setting up for a larger move tomorrow or Friday. The direction is unclear. We maintain long/short stock index day trade strategies to capture the move in either direction and are way overdue for a big day. We are also trading Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, and Silver strategies.

We had a small gain in Crude Oil with two strategies going long. Crude Oil went mostly sideways until we exited the trade, and then it moved higher. 

The price action the first two days of the year so far has been stubborn to generate an intra-day trend, and very choppy. The daily chart looks very trendy while intra-day the chart is very choppy. See the charts below to compare day session 1 minute vs 24 hour session daily chart.

The afternoon rally, the last 20 minutes yesterday was taken back overnight. 

We are down about -2% in the 250K Portfolio since December 21 when we started the latest portfolio. We started when this portfolio was in a hypothetical drawdown and we will manage risk accordingly to get a bounce or pause. The low VIX environment has been extreme and we anticipate a cycle towards more trends intra-day to match those seen on the daily charts.

The Stock Index Portfolio 27 E-mini was down -$60 today.

The Stock Index Portfolio 27 Micro was up $53.50. All trades were the same except Momentum Fader. Momentum Fader had some better trades on the Micro with FOMC  Minutes.

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