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Trading System Signals on 01/08/2024

The 250K Portfolio was up $11,650 on the day for our best day since June 1 of last year (there were two 11.5k days since June of last year). The pent-up ranges resolved to a very trendy range expansion. We were more than due for a day like this. No strategy works all the time and the counter trend mean reversion strategies that have worked too well lately (and against how we typically trade) was due for a setback. I imagine that a martingale strategy to buy dips and sell rallies and add to losers, while waiting for a reversal, has worked really well lately based on the choppy price action. That sort of strategy had no relief today in this type of market. We went up for the month by about $100. It was good to be back to breakeven after the chop last week. I think the market could have a few more of these types of days in the next week and we could see all indexes quickly move to all-time highs.


It is not difficult to find strategies that work on day's like today. It is difficult to make sure that we manage the drawdowns during unfavorable price action so that we can capture day's like today.


It was interesting to see how the NYSE TICK thresholds were +938 and -735. On Friday they moved between +/- 1000 several times.


​The strategies started out with short trades and losses in Silver and Natural Gas before getting long in a market that gapped up and surged in the first 30 minutes. We were later than I would have liked with our net long position. The market seems to want to "get away" with putting in the move before any type of confirmation strategies can take advantage of it and then has typically been reversing once confirmation strategies take a position. The continued trend higher today was beneficial to put our profits back in the positive on the year. This is the first full trading week of the year.


We anticipated a pullback coming into the year. The pullback last week was extremely choppy. We noted how "controlled" the pullback was based on narrow VIX and intra-day ranges with bulls still in control. You could see that today as the market tried to put in a full day's trend within the first 30 minutes.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 E-mini hypothetical results were +$7,960


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 Micro hypothetical results were +$917.75. The Micro NQ is not showing the Momentum Reversal loss that showed up in the Emini NQ so the Micros performed better today than the E-minis.


Some of the hypothetical results are slightly different and better on my research desktop (where the Portfolio Calculator spreadsheet is created) than the signals on my dedicated server. For example, last week, I have several losses for Tick Chop News E-mini S&P on my trading system signals for live trading on my dedicated server while the signals were not on the desktop computer that I use to export data to the Portfolio Calculator. Even after I refresh the data, the signals are still on my dedicated sever but not on the desktop. With technology, there will always be some differences since the data servers have slight glitches and different data sometimes. I have found this to average out over time.


Today's results are nice to have considering how much chop we have seen lately.


We published this over the weekend.



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