Trading System Signals on 01-15-2026

The compression in price movement for the stock indexes continues while the precious metals have been wild. Longer term technical divergences continue in the stock market based on my analysis.

The excess liquidity since 2009 continues to prop up the stock indexes.

Since January 1, 2024, over 94% of the gains in the Nasdaq 100 have occurred during the evening session. The absolute gain since January 1, 2024 through January 15, 2026, in the Nasdaq 100 is +46.22% while the gain during that same time period during the day session is only 2.74%. It is difficult to know what the fundamental reason for this divergence could be. Technically, we know that it is easier for one side to push their agenda during lighter volume time periods such as the evening session.

There are only two times in the history of the Nasdaq 100 where there was more than a 10% gain on the year and the day session was negative. We saw this in 2007 and in 2024. The beginning of 2025 started to look like 2008. After strong selling starting at the end of February 2025, the market started to rebound in mid April 2025 after the POTUS said "Now is a good time to buy stocks". The market made one of its strongest recoveries as well as its quickest 20-week volatility crush. More than 75% of the gains in 2025 were in the overnight session.

Through January 15, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 day session and night session divergence continues with an overall gain in the market, with the net gain during the overnight session. It will be interesting to see how this technical divergence plays out.

The compressed ranges in stock indexes and overly wild price action in the metals, often times rejecting stop and market orders, requiring entries to be chased with limit orders and stop losses to be chased with stop limit orders, has made the beginning of 2026 "bumpy" for most of our portfolios.

The hypothetical trading system signals for the portfolios for Thursday for 01/15/2026 are listed below.

*For our Auto Trade clients on the Two System Portfolio, for V-Reversal, I had a software issue yesterday with our Auto Trade brokerage partner that generated a breakeven scenario for yesterday's trade instead of additional gains. This has been corrected and is an error on my side.

*The Two System Portfolio has been a highlight and is still up on the month. I am still regretting yesterday's software issue...

With the wild price action in the metals, the base recommendation for the portfolios is to focus on the Nasdaq day trade strategies in the portfolios right now while I work on some updates for the portfolios and over the holiday weekend.

Monday is a holiday, so there is no trading on Monday. The stock market is closed but the futures will be open.

Based on our stock index analysis, we can see the easy trends are at night. We have to be cautious when employing nighttime trading systems as we have seen in the metals. The doubling and tripling of metals prices in such a short period of time is certainly an unusual scenario that has generated less liquid order books in those markets, making automation in Gold and Silver difficult.