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Trading System Signals on 01/29/2024

The hypothetical trading system signals for the 250K Portfolio (50 strategies) were + $5,150 on the day. We came into the day in a -$7,722.50 drawdown with the latest portfolio up $500 since it was released. We were near to an intra-day drawdown entry as the equity curve dipped slightly before moving higher. It is more difficult to sync up intra-day than end of day. The E-mini S&P was up $2,075, the Nasdaq was up $5,095, Crude Oil was down -$2,425, and Gold was up +$405. The 250K Portfolio, 50 Strategies is still about $2,600 off its last equity peaks.


The market melted up this afternoon ahead of the FOMC, economic reports, and big tech earnings this week. The stock indexes remain in stealth market mode by going up on neutral and even bearish patterns in price and market internals, rallying at times of days, times of week, and before economic announcements where it has been more sideways and choppy prior to these economic releases.


The strategies still did a great job capturing the move. We continue to seek some volatility in the equity curve before we enter into live trading in this new portfolio since volatility in the equity curve moves in cycles - expanding and contracting. The runup you get during low volatility can quickly be taken back during higher volatility requiring additional cycles of profit to get ahead. Waiting for a drawdown, gives us the opportunity to enter at a lower risk entry point and run downhill if it moves in our favor and helps us manage our risk if it continues to go against us. Since the latest 50 Strategy Portfolio was released, we have seen several positive confirmations in the way it is trading the markets including metals and energies.


I do anticipate some more volatility this week with FOMC, economic reports, and earnings as January ends on Wednesday (FOMC Day) and February starts on Thursday. A small amount of intra-day volatility like we saw in the first two weeks of January, can give us our entry signal as we start February.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 E-mini was up $5,622.50 for a nice bounce off the drawdown. We have been looking for this bounce as we continue to recommend this portfolio.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 Micro was up $577.25 taking the same trades as the E-mini.


V-Reversal V E-mini Nasdaq was up +$1,985 while V-Reversal IV E-mini Nasdaq was up $1,415 on the day. There was a big V-Reversal pattern in Silver today as well. I continue to work on locking into this pattern in other markets as well.


We are set for the most eventful week of 2024 and have seen the sixth record close in the S&P 500 this year.


One notable reading I saw on the VIX today was a spike above 15 around 10:30 before the VIX retreated but still closed up on the day. We are seeing the net change on the day between stock indexes and the VIX go in the same direction lately. There is typically an inverse relationship between stock indexes and the VIX. Was there a big options hedge at 10:30 am EST this morning or a data glitch in my data feed?

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