Trading System Signals on 01-30-2026

The price action in January has been both interesting and insightful. On one hand, when prices continue to test support and can't break through, the anticipation is for higher prices. On the other hand, the extreme number of reversals, the lack of follow through to the upside on long trades with deep stop running price action has been a form of volatility not reflected in the VIX. Volatility and unusual price action can be an indicator of a change in trend. This price action would make sense if it does represent a major change in trend ahead. The stock market is reluctant to give up any gains. The normal market cycles that we have seen historically have been "absent" in recent years.

With Bitcoin at the 83,000 level today, it was down 34% off its October highs while Silver was down over 30% intra-day. A 10 - 20% or more, fast move lower in stocks would make sense.

The trend day trade strategies have really suffered this month with this challenging price action. To me, the intra-day price action looks like a market that should go lower but excess liquidity props it up. Where does this continued excess liquidity come from and how much longer it will last is the big question? The Nasdaq 100 did fail to make new highs this week, coming within 17 points on Wednesday's FOMC Day. Since Wednesday, we have seen a choppy and subtle reversal in price action.

Technically and from a risk management perspective, adjusting portfolios to remove some of the day trade trend strategies would make sense. It is difficult to pause some of these strategies that are in a drawdown based on how markets can change modes as the month changes and how there "should be" a breakout move. Its highly unusual for there to be so much back and forth intra-day for the entire month without some sort of resolution.

Today we saw the metals post historic daily dollar ranges. Silver's range was 44.45 points or $222,250 in the SI contract. This was more than the entire contract value and price just last summer. I would not try to algorithmically trade the precious metals markets right now.

I am working on some potential adjustments for the portfolio and should have the Portfolio Metrics and Portfolio Calculator updated.

January has been sloppy and this week has incurred additional slippage and during today's session as well.

Hypothetical Trading System Signals on 01-30-2026

Diversified Portfolio 57 (NQ Only) = -$5,755 (with approx -$6,840 in live trade based on the additional slippage)

Stock Index Portfolio 37 = -$5,755

Stock Index Portfolio 18 = +$795

Two System Portfolio NQ = -$120 (with approx -$400 in live trade based on the additional slippage)

Silver Portfolio = +$3,070

50K Portfolio = will update later this evening (without Gold and Silver)

Here are some interesting trading system setups based on the 11 AM prop up price action in the market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJFrL3nxa_0