top of page

Trading System Signals on 02/01/2024

Strong signals today in the 250K Portfolio, 50 strategy portfolio. The hypothetical gains today were +$6,907.50. We have dialed in a good portfolio that is now up about 14K since we released it (started tracking on 1/16/2024) after today's gains. It is at new equity peaks, giving us additional confirmation that this portfolio setup is in sync with this market. This is based on the hypothetical results that we are tracking and waiting for a losing streak or drawdown before going live.


It is common when adjusting from one regime change to another, from higher VIX to lower VIX to miss some moves while waiting for a good entry point. Regular 10K drawdowns are frequent, especially intra-day, and will give us a good entry point. The portfolio was less than 1k away from equity peaks made on Tuesday (1/23/2024) coming into today.


We just said yesterday that we aren't seeing 300 - 500 point moves in the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq is up over 300 points today. Six minutes before the cash close at 3:54 pm EST, the Nasdaq futures dipped to nearly 17,400 and was up +150 on the day from the previous day's close. At 4:30 pm EST in the after hours, just 36 minutes later, it is up +330 with the initial moves on big tech earnings pushing the market higher. The gains on the day in the Nasdaq have more than doubled in the after-hours by 4:30 pm EST.


The gains from the day session open (we referenced the previous day's close in the previous paragraph) until 3:54 pm EST in the Nasdaq was +103.5. From the day session open until 4:15 pm EST it was +238. This move continues to extend in the after hours. There was a gap up today as well so the day session range is more compressed when considering the trade from today's open versus the trade from yesterday's close. I have found that it is important to hold day trades until 4:10-4:14 EST on some strategies to really capture the move on favorable days.


We know that 0DTE options expire and day trade margins end before 4:00 pm EST so that smaller retail traders don't get to participate in the complete move on days like today.


Since November we have seen more of the larger moving day's happen in the after hours or overnight session. We have also seen some big moves that start at 3:50-3:55 pm EST. This is the stealth bull we have been referencing.


Many of our strategies start to exit before the cash close, since we are day-traders. It's been a busy week with FOMC and tech earnings so we may see big moves in the after-hours that we don't typically trade. It is possible for the market to completely reverse or gap further before the open. Tomorrow is Jobs Friday one hour before the open so that could generate a new trend or extend the current trend.


The big tech earning moving in the after-hours are AMZN and AAPL.


The current portfolio is setup to capture the current market and the historical market. We welcome the narrow ranges we have seen in a compressed VIX since August as well as big ranges and higher VIX levels that we have also seen the last few years.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 E-mini was up $6,512.50 to give us an extended bounce in this portfolio. The bounce we were waiting on right at a drawdown cycle has taken back about half of the losses in this drawdown cycle.


The Stock Index Portfolio 27 Micro was up $697.75. The Micros had two additional trades that did not show up in the E-minis. This was favorable for the Micros as the Micro signals lately have out-performed the Eminis. Two additional Micro trades included Tick Wave Micro ES was -$82.50 and Gap Continuation Micro NQ was +$131.50


The V-Reversals were 2 for 2 with V-Reversal III hitting +$1,995 while the V-Reversal V was up +$3,760.


Crude Oil did not trade today despite the wild price action.


The Nasdaq strategies in the 250K Portfolio were +$4,020 going 4 for 5 while the S&P went 2 for 3 and was up $2,412.50. Only one trade in Gold +$475.

37 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page