Trading System Signals on 03/19/2025

FOMC Days have traditionally been choppy. Last year, FOMC Days became more trendy. Today started out choppy, followed by a very strong trend higher. The Nasdaq 100 futures made a parabolic move, making highs at 2:11 pm CST. That move was followed by a 200 point Nasdaq drop in 19 minutes by 2:30 pm CST before moving higher in about 120 points in 15 minutes by 2:45, then rolling over 100 points taking out the 2:30 pm CST lows by the close. In the Nasdaq 100, the FOMC low was 19769 at 1:01 pm CST. The move to the highs was 374 points in 1 hour and 11 minutes (at 2:11 pm CST). By the close, about half of the FOMC rally had been retraced as the parabolic portion was completely mean reverted.

Finding bullish news in the FOMC decision seemed like a stretch to me but I am not a Fed watcher that keeps track of all the dot plots. Price action is my favorite indicator and describing the day helps me quantify and think of better ways to trade and develop strategies or adjust existing strategies.

Here are the Dot Plots.

Since 2009, the market has relied on the Fed to provide stimulus to "fix" bearish markets and economies.

The decision to trade on FOMC is a bit arbitrary as most days lately have had more back and forth price action than FOMC Day today.

The One Million MNS was up +0.16%, matching Sibilance NQ v20 while the 250K Portfolio was up +$400 in live trading today.

The Stock Index Portfolio 11 was up +$700 per E-mini and 1/10th per Micro. The Open Range NQ had another nice trade after 6 losers in a row. As I've said frequently, I like strategies that cut losses and ride winners, even if they have a low winning percentage.

The 50K Portfolio hypothetical results were -$690.

The Two System Portfolio NQ hypothetical results were -$360 with a nice long at the end of the day to take V-Reversal NQ positive on the day after an early loss. Gap Continuation 2020 traded for the first time since February 10 and was down on the day.

The Four System Portfolio NQ hypothetical results were -$5,145. The Zig Zag NQ has been out of sync with the zigs and zags in the market the last few days and has gone through a drawdown.

There was some excitement about NVIDIA today as well. The picked FOMC day it seems to ride any bullish euphoria the Fed might generate to make the market go higher again.

QE started 16 years ago, the market has its drivers license now and maybe the Fed has given it the signal to "drive itself".