Trading System Signals on 03/28/2025 - A Day for the Shorts

The Stock Index Portfolio 11 trading system signals had one of its best days historically and was near a record for a single day's gains.

The stock indexes approached the March lows (the Nasaq 100 futures came within 11 points of the March 11 lows in the afterhours) while Gold closed above $3100. There is enough "old liquidity" in the system to provide some incremental "propping" and we haven't seen "panic" selling yet. Tariffs are the headline but the lack of new stimulus from monetary and fiscal policy that the market has come to depend on is the most important fundamental. There market continues to ask "what will the Fed do" but now there is inflation to consider as well.

The chart above represents the Feds balance sheet. There was also fiscal stimulus that overlapped the monetary stimulus in recent years. Fiscal stimulus is now in a downtrend as well.

We stayed flat today while waiting for a drawdown entry alert in the One Million MNS and 250K Portfolio with Sibilance NQ v24. Since mid-October, we have seen a major transition in the market. We have dodged some larger drawdowns with our risk management in our larger portfolios that have had multiple layers of adjustments. When markets change there can be rolling and incremental changes while you adjust your strategy to sync up with the market. Making adjustments and limiting risk can also miss the beginning of some portfolio gains once you are in sync with the market. Today we missed a nice short trend in Sibilance NQ v24 but are glad to have more confirmation with our approach and will hold for a drawdown entry alert to start as we look forward to capturing trends in both directions with this long-short approach. The hypothetical gains on Sibilance NQ trading 5 Micros per signal were +$13,012.50 with the Sibilance NQ trading system at new equity peaks.

The hypothetical performance for the Stock Index Portfolio 11 was $27,135.00 with 1/10th per E-mini. This was about $1000 from its best day historically. This pushed this portfolio to new equity peaks in todays trade.

The hypothetical performance for the new 50K Portfolio was -$195.00

The hypothetical performance for the Two System Portfolio NQ was -$1,035.00

The hypothetical performance for the Four System Portfolio NQ was -$270.00

Two of our top "low percentage of winners that goes for the big moves (home runs)" strategies were up again today. Gap Continuation 2019 and Open Range NQ are below.

Trend changes from a market that depends on monetary and fiscal stimulus back to a market that depends on corporate earnings for its gains can generate regime changes and different patterns in the market. The market assumes there will be a pullback based on uncertainty and then a rally once there is clarity. This is based on recency bias. What if it takes the market 2-3+ year to adjust to adjust from 16 years of stimulus back to more organic growth? It can generate more two-sided trading patterns. As traders we embrace the uncertainty and while trading short term patterns on both the long and short side.

It will be interesting to see if the Sunday night bid comes into the market with that "surprise bid it up energy". The NYSE TICK never crossed below -1000 today. I am anticipating more follow through selling.