Trading System Signals on 04/07/2025

The market rallied today on fake news with a massive spike higher. The Nasdaq 100 futures moved about 1700 points ($34,000 per E-mini) in about 30 minutes. Then the market pulled back from its peaks by 1000 points ($20,000 per E-mini) in about 21 minutes and used the energy from the fake news to remain bid the rest of the day. It felt like the same type of bullish bid from last Monday's lows on March 31, 2025 (at almost exactly the same time 9:45/9:50) with a runup up through last Wednesday highs. Looks like Monday morning 9:45 am dip buying has been the playbook the last two Mondays.

We remained flat today with our Automation Mode = Off. How extreme was the price action today? On Friday, we discussed how the Zig Zag Count of 100 point moves in the Nasdaq 100 futures broke a new record by 5, hitting an all time high of 26 with previous levels at 21 and 19. Today the Zig Zag Count hit 56! - Breaking the old record by 30. The VIX hit the 60 handle as well.

Based on historical price data, it is starting to look like technical capitulation. There is a difference though. At previous capitulation levels, the fundaments were different. In the past, policy makers have been more accommodative at these levels. Inflation and Debt can become the limiting factors for more accommodative policies during this cycle.

We prefer to capture short term trades and fluctuations in the market during steady state market conditions. I like to zoom out to see the big picture and use that information to provide context for our short-term trading.

The biggest technical factor that we discussed is the divergence between the overnight trend and day session trend in 2024. The Nasdaq 100 took out the 2023 closing price by almost 300 points today at its lows. This price action makes sense even without the headlines or fundamentals since the entire gains of 2024 were based on low volume price action in the overnight session.

The portfolios were down across the board but our recommendation was to pause automation today based on various volatility filters we discussed pre-market.

Sibilance NQ v24 was up on the day about 8K trading 5 micros per emini based on hypothetical results. It was down on Friday about -5K based on hypotheticals. It did better than the rest of the portfolios based on the one bar delay and exiting some longs one minute later because of the massive surge in price from the fake news (90 day delay on Tariffs). V-Reversal was down on the day but the first trade was profitable going long, exiting intra-bar with a profit target. Sibilance enters and exits trades based on closed bar basis and the V-Reversal long exited at the close of the 10:11 bar which was about 197 points higher than the base V-Reversal long exit that occurred intra-bar. The range of that one-minute bar was about 304 points. On a day like today, it could go either way though.

We will monitor the pre-market tomorrow and send notification for Automation Mode. The overnight session is relatively quiet so far.