Trading System Signals on 04/09/2025

One of the key takeaways from the market today is that regardless of how volatile and extreme the market has been, there continue to be new extremes in the market and its ability to make massive moves. Today the market surged higher and had gains that resembled the best single day gains for indexes in 2001 or 2008. It is possible that the market could continue higher and move to new highs or it could be a bear market bounce with the ability to mean revert the entire move. Lately, we have been in a trading environment where bigger and bigger moves occur in both directions. Once you think there is a move that is strong enough in one direction to continue, the reversal ends up surprising. Either way, the move today opens the door for this type of move again in either direction.

It is possible the market could reverse the same amount (or more) that it gained today since we have seen this back-and-forth price action with increasing point values. Once the market moves up 12% in this type of environment, it could also move down -12%. It is important to know the CME circuit breaker has pauses in trading at -7%, -13%, and -20%.

We don't have a preference on direction and are ready to trade markets that move higher, lower, or sideways. My preference would be for more steady state price action, within the ranges and volatility levels that we typically see, in either direction.

One of the issues with trading high volatility news events like we saw today was that the Tradestation data feed was getting stuck and pausing. We saw this during the pandemic until the platforms adjusted for higher and faster data feeds. Today there was a new level of both volume and volatility and speed of movement. During the Pandemic, I created the CVIX indicator, Capstone VIX. It has been relevant this year and is based on the amount the price moves back and forth in relation to the VIX. Today it hit a new high. We have not seen this many percentage moves and turnings points within a day at these VIX levels.

Many of the strategies had different results on different platform logins. I track strategies on three different platform logins. For example, two did not have a V-Reversal trade while one that is used for tracking and not automating did show the V-Reversal trade. Refreshing and rebooting to fix all the data snags, the V-Reversal long trade shows up on all three instead of just one. The dedicated server is one of the platforms that did not show the trade.

Additionally, fast markets can receive order rejects from the exchange for stop and market orders.

Our strategies are developed to trade more normal volatility and steady state market conditions and are not dependent on massive news driven markets with lottery like gains.

We issued an Automation Mode = Off today in the pre-market and did not trade based on what we discussed above.

The Hypothetical Portfolio Results are below.

+--------------------------------+----------------------+

| Portfolio | Combined Daily P/L |

|--------------------------------+----------------------|

| Sibilance NQ v24 (5 Micros) | $2,500.00

| Stock Index Portfolio 11 | $4,885.00

| 50K Portfolio | -$6,375.00

| EMINI NQ 2 System Portfolio | $1,975.00

| EMINI NQ 3 System Portfolio Ii | $1,975.00

| EMINI NQ 4 System Portfolio | -$600.00

| EMINI NQ 5 System Portfolio | $950.00

+--------------------------------+----------------------+