Trading System Signals on 08/01/2025

I am glad to see some range expansion. The Nasdaq 100 closed 84 points higher than it's June close after trading below the June close. It only took two days to go from intra-day all time highs to giving back all of July's gains intra-day today. A simple 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would bring the Nasdaq 100 to 20,894.

One of the unusual market behaviors is how the stock indexes treat very small pullbacks at technically overbought levels on the daily charts like they are capitulation lows in an oversold bear market. Some of the recent dip buying patterns remind me of "end of bear market patterns" but are taking place near all-time highs.

Today is an example of how the market tried to "re-price" based on new information related to the jobs report, tariffs, and earnings, but was propped up intra-day, generating noise and protecting the morning lows. V-Reversal took advantage of this move. The stock indexes have a way of "throwing a tantrum" on down days. Historically, trendy distribution days have been a part of normal market behavior.

The hypothetical results for today portfolios are:

Stock Index Portfolio 18 = -$6,010.00

Two System Portfolio NQ = +$1,975.00

The favorable window that has been profitable 13 out of the last 13 months from the 21st of the month through the second trading day of the month for the Stock Index Portfolio 18 was +$3,085 coming into the day with two trading days left for this cyclical pattern. Today, with the down day, the pattern would need to make up +$2,925 on Monday to keep a 14th winning streak in a row for this cycle. We don't depend on this cycle and would rather there be an even distribution of profits throughout the month.