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Trading System Signals on 08-18-2025

The market has gone back to some of its narrowest ranges and sloppiest tone of the decade the last few days. The market seems to be focused on geopolitical discussions for which there is no real market moving information in my opinion. Additionally, Jackson Hole is this week and Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday. The VIX settled at 14.99.


V-Reversal trades are below:

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Chop II News was the highlight of the day and more strategies that trade every day like this could be more in order if this price action continues. I anticipate the markets will expand ranges and trading opportunities soon.

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Hypothetical Trading System Portfolio Results:

Stock Index Portfolio 18 = -$5,000

Two System Portfolio NQ =-$1,525


It is difficult to "watch" this market while working for trend trades. It's unusually strange for the market to go from the ranges in April to the ranges we see now. We adjusted our strategies to trade higher volatility and within the market environment we have seen in the 2020's. In July, the average ranges slipped out of the normal ranges of the 2020's. We are entering a season where historically; volatility has been higher. The market continues to be propped up by what feels like endless sources of liquidity.


The one thing that is new in 2025 is the speed of the shift from high tail daily ranges to low tail daily ranges.


The market seems to want to avoid any sort of steady state price action and tone.


The Stock Index Portfolio 18 is $5K per E-mini away from worse case drawdown. We are looking for a bounce as we move into the second half of the month. Thursday is the 21st and our pattern of the 21st of the month through the second trading day of the following month has been profitable 14 out of the last 14 months for the Stock Index Portfolio 18.


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