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Trading System Signals on 08-22-2025

The market continues to take highly anticipated events to generate very little intra-day movement. At 10:00, the market surged on Jay Powells Jackson Hole speech and from the low at 10:01 to the high at 10:02, the Nasdaq 100 moved 247 points in 120 seconds. The gain on the day was 360 points. It is difficult to profit from that type of move unless you "guess in advance". The rest of the day became more and more narrow while the VIX was crushed into the 14 handle.


ree

The market has taken the same bullish stance since the end of 2022 based on rate cut expectations. I believe there was an expectation of 7 rate cuts in 2024. It is an interesting dynamic. While the point gain was big on the day, it was more of an asymmetric move that happened in 2 minutes. If you remove the price surge on the chart, you observe a sloppy market environment that continues to represent August summer doldrums with the market makers more in control that the bulls or the bears.


NQ OT which we did not trade but sent out to Stock Index Portfolio 18 subscribers did capture the move by taking a position in advance.

ree

The idea of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in September based on the Jackson Hole speech isn't really that bullish but an August market could easily move the market in either direction. It is difficult to take the price action from July 1 through August seriously from a longer-term trend detection perspective based on what we see in the markets. I anticipate more "valid" price action after Labor Day to either confirm the bull or correct the bull.


Hypothetical Portfolio Performance:

Stock Index Portfolio 18 = -$6,280 per E-mini

Two System Portfolio NQ = -$1,180 per E-mini


I have stayed with the Stock Index Portfolio 18 since we have entered the favorable window from the 21st through the 2nd trading day of the following month.


It would have been a good day to start the Diversified 57 after the recent steep drawdown. The Diversified 57 was up +$5,460. Silver Breakout B had a good trade.

ree

The best trades of the day were positioned in the correct direction prior to Jerome Powell's speech.


Another interesting note was higher precious metals, higher crypto, and higher stock indexes. Anticipating some reversals next week on one or more.


The Portfolio Calculator has been updated through Friday's trade.

 
 
 

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