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Trading System Signals on 09-18-2025

Today, the Nasdaq 100 futures closed just 8 points above the morning open (8:30 am CST to 3:15 pm CST) while the Nasdaq 100 futures were up +225.25. What stands out isn’t the modest gain, but the pattern: once again, the bulk of the uptrend has been driven by overnight strength. This mirrors much of 2024, when most gains occurred at night, leaving the day session choppy and challenging for trend-based strategies.


The early 2025 selloff acted as a technical correction to that 2024 “overnight bull / day-session bear” dynamic. Liquidity has since propelled prices higher, and once again, overnight sessions have been leading.


Adapting with Portfolios

  • The Stock Index Portfolio 18 has hit a new worst-case drawdown, reflecting the challenge of day-session trend strategies in this environment.

  • The Stock Index Portfolio 37, which emphasizes 14 counter-trend S&P strategies, is currently the recommended allocation. This portfolio is better aligned with the sideways, mean-reverting price action dominating the day session.


Looking Back – and Ahead

Historically, the most significant market moves happened during the day session. Decades ago, overnight trading didn’t even exist. In recent years, however, the day session has evolved into a mean-reversion arena, where strategies like V-Reversal have thrived.


While the current environment favors counter-trend and reversion strategies, this pattern won’t last forever. At some point, momentum selloffs and intraday trends will return. The strength of the Stock Index Portfolio 37 is that it positions us to take advantage of today’s market reality, while keeping us ready for the next major shift.


✅ Key takeaway: By adapting allocations to favor counter-trend and mean-reversion strategies now, we remain positioned for both current conditions and the inevitable return of stronger intraday momentum.


Hypothetical Trading System Portfolio Signals and Results:

Two System Portfolio NQ = -$920

Stock Index Portfolio 18 = -$4,260

Stock Index Portfolio 37 = -$4,260

Diversified Portfolio 57 = -$7,475

Silver Portfolio = +$975

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CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY, SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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